If you want to know how stats can lie, just look at the scoreboard at the Estádio do Dragão last night. FC Porto spent 90 minutes suffocating Nottingham Forest, looking like a team destined for the semi-finals, yet they’re heading to the City Ground next week with nothing but a frustrating 1-1 draw to show for it.
Farioli’s men were out of the blocks like a rocket. By the 11th minute, the home crowd was in raptures. A liquid move involving Pablo Rosario and Gabri Veiga sliced Forest open, leaving William Gomes with the simplest of tap-ins at the back post. It was dominant, it was deserved, and it felt like the floodgates were about to burst open.
The Own Goal Heard ‘Round the World
Then, the unthinkable happened. Just two minutes after taking the lead, Porto defender Martim Fernandes had a moment he’ll be seeing in his nightmares for years. Under no real pressure, he attempted a standard back-pass to Diogo Costa. But the power was all wrong, the angle was worse, and the ball rolled past a helpless Costa and into the net.
From a position of total control, Porto handed Forest a goal without the visitors even having to take a shot. The stadium went silent, and you could feel the momentum vanish into the Portuguese night air.
Ortega to the Rescue
The second half was essentially a siege. Porto threw everything—the kitchen sink included—at the Forest goal. They finished with an Expected Goals (xG) of 1.92 compared to Forest’s measly 0.26. But Stefan Ortega was a wall. He denied Terem Moffi twice and watched as Igor Jesus had a potential winner ruled out by VAR for a high challenge.
Forest didn’t offer much going forward, but they didn’t have to. They rode their luck, leaned on Ortega, and survived a statistical lopsidedness that should have seen them buried. Nuno Espírito Santo’s men take a massive result back to Nottingham, while Porto are left wondering how they didn’t win this by three.
